MyDD :: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive

Why NC and Indiana were Decisive

by Mostly, Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:26:59 AM EST

Personally, I've known Obama was going to be the nominee for a long time. I've known since his 17 point win in Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton just could not win the remaining states by the margin she needed to make up for the drubbing she took all through February.

So why did the race go on? Superdelegates. The presence of superdelegates means that out of the 2025 of 2209 or whatever number of delegates you need to clinch, 800 of them are always in doubt. It makes the candidate who's winning seem much further away than they are. And they in fact are further away, because the superdelegates can in theory vote for whomever they want, and as long as that possibility exists, we have a race.

But it was an illusory possibility. The majority of superdelegates who were ever going to declare for Hillary Clinton did so before a single vote was cast. And in fact, she's holding fairly steady with what she had prior to Super Tuesday. And the remaining superdelegates have no intention of flouting the voters' will, even if it makes 49% of them happy - EVEN IF THEY THINK THEY'LL BE VOTING FOR THE BETTER CANDIDATE. They not only have an election to win, they have a party to hold together.

How would it look for them to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton because she does well with white voters? It would be like saying to black people, without which the Democratic Party is basically the Green party, "Sorry, but your candidate can't win. We love it when you vote for us, but we're not going to count you this time - please be a good Democrat though and continue to support us and our endless rolodex of milquetoast candidates."

So it was a question of if they were going to declare for Obama, not when. They couldn't declare before Texas and Ohio, because those were two huge states with tremendous national interest. Then they couldn't declare afterwards, because Hillary Clinton won them both. (Just not by enough). Then they couldn't declare after Wyoming and Mississippi, because Pennsylvania was coming up - and nothing was going to stop her from winning there. How would it look for them to declare Obama the nominee, and then for Hillary Clinton to win a big state immediately afterwards?

They can declare now. (And seriously, fuck West Virginia and Kentucky. Hillary Clinton can't carry either. Bill Clinton couldn't even carry Kentucky.)

Update: While I'm being (rightly) taken to task for claiming that Bill Clinton lost Kentucky in 96 when he actually won it, I don't think I'm wrong in my larger point. To quote johnnygunn, which in no way should be taken to mean that he endorses the content of this diary:

Mostly - Was mostly correct. West Virginia is less and less likely to be in the Dem column. Underground coal mining is disappearing - the source of strong union Dems. It is being replaced by mountaintop removal that employs far fewer and often nonunionized workers. What you end up with is an economically distressed region with an Upper South culture that is highly susceptible to Republican "cultural" bugaboos.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Superdelegates, Michigan, Florida, Primary, Election 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 31 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

Consider this from Ben Smith (emphasis added):

Matt Seyfang, a former campaign delegate counter who tracks this stuff for us, e-mails over his estimated margins: Clinton +2 in Indiana, Obama +17, net +15 for Obama.

Seyfang writes:

[...]

What's interesting if these numbers hold is that this assures that Obama will win a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates [excluding Florida and Michigan]. He's now at 1,494. Under this set of numbers, he picks up 101 for a total of 1,595. A majority is 1,627, so he's 33 short. If you assume he makes threshold in each of the remaining 24 districts for one delegate and then picks up at least one PLEO and one at-large in each of the 6 remaining contests, he's at 1,631. The battle for the majority of pledged delegates is over.

Ben Smith - Seyfang's estimate: Obama gains 15 Politico 7 May 08

This is a narrative that would help the media explain it's way out of the credibility dilemma it has created for itself by two months of 'horserace' reporting when the arithmetic outcome was clear. We'll see...

by Shaun Appleby on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:33:46 AM EST

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

Well my thinking is that it was always theoretically possible for Superdelegates to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton, and even though they had no intention of doing so, there was no opportunity for them to declare en masse. Just a trickle here and there.

I think the floodgates are opening right now.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:37:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you feel better now? (none / 0)

Let's cool it on the rhetoric.

Senator Clinton could get a hundred superdelegates tomorrow and so could Senator Obama. Both of them waged good campaigns and both won tonight in what was a largely poetic and dramatic night that led to some lovetaps for everyone.

Senator Clinton should go in all the way through Puerto Rico, really; it'll help the process and it'll help mend fences.

And we don't know the full impact of tonight. Tomorrow Senator Clinton could come out swinging.

But for now, let's just discuss what's been good about these campaigns.

And that's that we've talked about policy more; talked about lifting the country up more; and have been the party of intelligence and responsibility rather than party of idiocy and the continuation of past failures.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:36:06 AM EST

Re: Do you feel better now? (2.00 / 1)

I thought my post was respectful, other than maligning the great state of Kentucky.

A bit process oriented perhaps, but that's 99% of what there is left to talk about. I was so psyched when the gas tax furlough (I refuse to use the Luntzian term "Holiday") came up as an issue - finally, a real policy difference.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:39:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you feel better now? (none / 0)

Bill Clinton carried both Kentucky and West Virginia in 1992 and 1996 and polls show Hillary would put both in play this year too.

by theshornwonder on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:46:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you feel better now? (none / 0)

Bill Clinton carried both Kentucky and West Virginia in 1992 and 1996 and polls show Hillary would put both in play this year too.

I haven't seen any polls suggesting that, but I could see West Virginia as a possibility. Kentucky, however, is pretty unlikely. Hillary ain't Bill -- i.e. a white male who grew up in Arkansas.

by RP McMurphy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:51:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you feel better now? (2.00 / 0)

You're right - I was fairly sure he had lost Kentucky.

Either way, they're trending Republican at a time when the rest of the country has been doing the opposite. And Hillary Clinton has no chance to win Kentucky. None.

(Here's something else I discovered - did you know John Adams was defeated in his run for a third term in office? It wasn't just a tradition for Presidents to retire after two terms like I learned in school)

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:52:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you feel better now? (2.00 / 1)

He was defeated after his first term, in the election of 1800. He lost to Jefferson.

by LarsThorwald on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:58:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you feel better now? (2.00 / 2)

Oh for christ sake.

I'm like this close to deleting this diary.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

(And seriously, fuck West Virginia and Kentucky. Hillary Clinton can't carry either. Bill Clinton couldn't even carry Kentucky.)

Probably not a wise thing to say.

by RP McMurphy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:37:17 AM EST

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

Probably not.

Hey, did you know my father had a brief stint spying on the KKK? True story. They had him checking out places in Western NC, where he's from, and then later on in Kentucky. Can't remember the organization - I want to say the NAACP but I don't think that's right. It's too late to call and wake him.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:41:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

Hey, did you know my father had a brief stint spying on the KKK? True story. They had him checking out places in Western NC, where he's from, and then later on in Kentucky. Can't remember the organization - I want to say the NAACP but I don't think that's right. It's too late to call and wake him.

Nice. Was he working for Superman? You know that Superman took on the KKK, right?

by RP McMurphy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:48:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 2)

Who won?

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:53:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

Who won?

Superman. In a series of radio shows, Superman battled the KKK and worked to show how banal the organization was by revealing its ridiculous rituals and codewords (or Kodewords, in Klan phraseology). According to some social scientists and cultural observers, it had a discernible impact.

by RP McMurphy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

Well, it's no surprise that Superman would win; after all, the KKK would obviously only ever have white kryptonite; and all that does is kill Kryptonian plant life.

by Ray Radlein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:40:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

Hahahaha. Nice.

by RP McMurphy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 05:38:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

The really weird thing is that this is the second time in a week that I have gotten to mention "white kryptonite" here on MyDD. Go figure.

by Ray Radlein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 05:50:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why you are an idiot (1.00 / 0)

Bill Clinton carried Kentucky.

Funny how Obamabots can declare that states don't matter now.

States that don't matter according to Obama and his pals:

Michgan
Florida
West Virginia
Kentucky

States that matter:
Guam
American Somoa
"Americans Abroad"

oh wait....

by theshornwonder on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:43:12 AM EST

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 2)

I hear you on the difficulties facing HRC after February.

About KY and WV - Bill Clinton carried both of them both times.

I was on a bike tour in the fall of 1992 through south central Kentucky. At a country store somewhere near Bugtussle I heard a few old timers talking about the upcoming election. They were saying, "Yeah, I think I'm going give that young feller from Arkansas a chance to run things." I knew it was over for Bush, Sr. then and there.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:44:53 AM EST

Neat anecdote (n/t) (none / 0)

Check out McCain.

by you like it on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (2.00 / 1)

That just says it all, doesn't it.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:55:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

I do have more than 100,000 miles on my bicycle.
Including back roads and little stores in nearly every one of the more than 100 counties in Kentucky. I'm also a historian of a sociological bent, so I was shocked to hear older men in a very Republican part of rural Kentucky talk about voting for the Democrat - and talking in a way that presupposes agreement among the group.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:24:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

I know what you mean.

Reminds me of when I was 15 in 1992, and heard some old men grousing about Bush I once when I was combing through their stuff at a yard sale in Greenville, NC. One of them ended it with "it's the golden rule again. They got the gold, they make the rules."

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

There's some serious ratings abuse going on.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:26:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah. (none / 0)

Mostly from me.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:28:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah. (none / 0)

Entirely from you.

And quit it. There's no reason for it, unless you want your rating privileges revoked, and me to not be able to post QUITE as fast.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:32:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah. (none / 0)

I troll rated the comments I thought were dickish. I have a short leash for anything 'cept niceness to night.

But I'll remove them.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:34:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Meh. (none / 0)

I just mojo'd a few of them. Can't figure out how to remove troll.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:38:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Meh. (none / 0)

Fair enough.

By the way, "that just says it all, doesn't it" wasn't dickish, it was "wow, I know exactly what you mean about how things were then and your anecdote summed it up".

But if it appears that way to you, then I can handle a single troll-rating.

by Mostly on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:39:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama supporters like you (none / 0)

really turn me off. The stunt Obama and his Chicago supporters pulled in Lake county is disgusting.

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:36:51 AM EST

Re: Why NC and Indiana were Decisive (none / 0)

With 37% white vote how can he win in the GE?

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:42:33 AM EST

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